Experts fear that year-end results will reveal an even more difficult year than 2011, especially as the countries most affected by Europe’s economic downturn are also the largest markets for Champagne. Indeed, 80% of shipments were destined for the eurozone.
Economists have not excluded the idea of a global economic recovery in 2013, but Steve Charters, director of the chair in Champagne Management at Reims Management School, predicts a rebound for the Champagne market not before 2014 or 2015.
Charters said: “Champagne is a reliable indicator of the state of the economy. Sales of Champagne can be directly measured against changes in consumption and they are currently reflected by the economic crisis in the eurozone. As with all previous crises which have seen poor sales, the question is how long this crisis will last.
“The 2008 recession was quite short thanks largely to Asia propping up the rest of the world economy. Following this logic, the Champagne industry had the good intuition to target Asia’s emerging markets. However, Champagne is still highly dependent on developments within Europe and it is there that the answer will be found.
“How long will the downturn in Europe last? None of us has a crystal ball, but considering what we have seen in 2012, it is unlikely that Europe will see any growth in 2013. The Champagne market will not recover before 2014 or 2015. Looking back, the poor sales of 2012 are far from over and even suggest the figures resembling those of 1991.”
Source: Steven Charters
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