The largest growth potential for African wheat imports lies hidden in western and eastern regions of sub-Saharan Africa – and less with the traditionally dominant importers in the north, where Egypt, Algeria and Morocco are currently taking the lead – according to Rabobank’s food and agriculture research division.
In the next decade, sub-Saharan Africa is expected to overtake North Africa as the largest importer on the continent, the Dutch banking group said.
Growth in population and GDP have resulted in a more than doubling of imports to the region in the past 15 years, while domestic production remained relatively stable. This widened gap between production and consumption is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next decade, with Rabobank predicting that an addition 9–11 million tonnes of wheat will be shipped to sub-Saharan Africa ten years from now – 40–50% above current levels – while North Africa is forecast to only import around 4 million tonnes, or 16%, more.
Rabobank grains and oilseeds analyst Vito Martielli said: “Structural differences exist between the regions, and while North Africa has the highest per capita consumption and a saturated market, sub-Saharan Africa has much smaller per capita consumption with higher potential, coupled with stronger population growth. The latter will be the key driver in widening the gap between local production in sub-Saharan Africa and potential long-term demand.”
A lack of favourable climatic conditions limits local production in West Africa, and thus the region has to import almost all of its wheat needs. European – and in particular French – players will be best-positioned to capture the trade flows in West Africa, Rabobank said.
In East Africa, the local production potential will also not be sufficient in the future to compensate for the expected demand. Therefore, wheat imports are forecast to grow strongly. Key exporting regions like the EU, the US, the Black Sea region and Australia are all well-positioned to benefit from growing trade opportunities there.
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