Set to reach seven billion by 2012 and as much as nine billion by 2050, the world’s population will need to eat, and as production stands currently this is unlikely to be possible, according to experts.
“In the 20th century, our challenge was to improve human well-being, and we did it,” said Sir David King, director of Smith School of Enterprise & the Environment, University of Oxford, speaking at this year’s City Food Lecture. “In the 21st century, our challenge is to manage a single planet with a population of nine billion. This is the biggest challenge our civilisation has yet to face up to.”
He pointed out that the UN has estimated that by 2030 the world will need to produce 50% more food crops than it does today, and highlighted the benefits that genetic modification (GM) could bring agriculture in creating ‘flood-sustainable’ rice strains, for example.
In his lecture, he highlighted solutions that were already being developed, including the flood-sustainable rice that had taken 15 years to perfect using conventional plant breeding techniques.
In the Loess Plateau in China, which had been decimated through excessive farming over centuries, a reforestation programme has created an increasingly verdant landscape with a diverse ecosystem that could provide valuable cultivatable land in the future. In Rwanda, farmers changed to cooperative farming techniques and began terracing in 2004. The country is now self-sufficient in food.
“Persuading farmers to do this isn’t easy, but is key,” said Sir David. “There’s no simple answer, but there are positive signs that we can manage this properly if we get the political management right.”
He called for a coordinated, political approach to the problem on a worldwide and holistic basis: “National perceptions of risk of depletion will lead to conflict,” he said. “The alternative scenario is for us to deepen our global governance procedures.”
The food industry in partnership with its agricultural suppliers is already taking action to reduce and ensure the sustainable development of the food chain, but clearly these activities will have to become increasingly coordinated and far-reaching if we’re to meet the increasing demand for food in the long-term.
This situation is combined with increasing consumer and government desire for product labelling to cover information such as carbon footprints and sustainability, so for any company that hasn’t looked at sustainability as part of its corporate strategy already, now’s the time to start.
Claire Rowan is managing editor of Food & Beverage International magazine.
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