© Peggy Greb, USDA ARS
Volume growth in grains and oilseeds stood at around 150 million tonnes globally for the last five years, exceeding the rate of growth during the previous five years by more than 50%, Rabobank has said.
In spite of growth, the significant decline in prices has meant that value fell by more than 15% in the same period to below $200 billion in 2014/15, according to the banking group’s latest report on the grains and oilseeds segment.
Global imports are dominated, both in absolute and growth terms, by Asia (43% of all imports), followed by the European Union (12%) and then North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and South and Central America, which each account for between 8% and 11% of imports. Sub-Saharan Africa demonstrated the strongest rates of growth.
South American exports are growing faster than those of North America. Brazil has raised its exports by an impressive 41 million tonnes, or 73%, in the last five years. Soybeans and corn were the two major exported commodities – doubling and trebling in trade respectively – driven by strong demand in Asia. The Black Sea region also continued its production and export growth: Ukraine, Russia and the eastern EU member states each increased their grain and oilseed exports by about 50%, Rabobank reported.
The Americas-to-Asia trade is the key driving factor of grain and oilseed trade flows worldwide – especially in China, where in the last five years grain and oilseeds imports have increased by almost 90%. Other destination areas like the Middle East, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa have also increased their role in the last five years.
“While US exports have been struggling in recent years, due to the strong US dollar, exports of emerging regions with weak currencies continue to boom,” said Rabobank global strategist – grain and oilseeds Stefan Vogel. “This includes Brazil, which has overtaken the US as the largest soybean exporter in the world and whose corn exports have tripled in the last five years – as well as the Black Sea region, which continues to show strong export growth rates. The EU has also, due to very good crops in recent years, grown its grain exports by about 50% in the last five years.”
Global trade will continue to grow, Rabobank predicted, as the demand regions with the highest growth rates (Asia, the Middle East and Africa) will rely even more on imported commodities. Trade into China will be crucial – especially for soybeans, as the demand for animal feed is further growing – while feed grain imports might face challenges in the future and the country might even turn into a net exporter as the government in China has to deal with record domestic corn stocks.
It added that South American exports will gain further importance and the gap between US and Brazilian exports will close further in the coming years; Brazil’s grain and oilseed exports are currently 30% lower than those of the US.
And the liberalisation of the Argentinean export system in late 2015 and a weak peso will support the country’s grain and oilseeds exports, Rabobank concluded.
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