Slowing global population growth is expected to lead to decelerating demand for food, according to a new report published by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).
The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2018-2027 study anticipates continuing productivity improvements in the agriculture sector. As a result, prices of main agricultural commodities are expected to remain low for the coming decade.
The report states that global agricultural production is growing steadily across most commodities, reaching record levels in 2017 for most cereals, meat types, dairy products and fish, while cereal stock levels have climbed to all-time highs.
OECD secretary general Ángel Gurría and FAO director general José Graziano da Silva presented the study in Paris. It attributes the demand slowdown to a deceleration of demand growth in major emerging economies, stagnating per capita consumption of staple foods, and a further gradual decline in global population growth rates.
The outlook finds that global agricultural and fish production is projected to grow by around 20% over the coming decade, but with considerable variation across regions. Strong growth is expected in developing regions with more rapid population growth, including Sub-Saharan Africa, South and East Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa. By contrast, production growth is expected to be much lower in developed countries, especially in Western Europe.
With slower consumption and production growth, agricultural and fish trade are projected to grow at about half the rate of the previous decade. Net exports are expected to increase from land-abundant countries and regions, notably the Americas. Countries with high population growth – in particular in the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and in Asia – are said to see rising net imports.
Ángel Gurría said: “While overall exports from countries and regions abundant in land are set to increase, notably in the Americas, many poorer countries with rising populations and limited land resources will be increasingly dependent on food imports to feed their people.
“It will be essential that exporters and importers alike have access to an open and predictable trade policy environment.”
José Graziano da Silva added: “The green revolution of the last century largely increased the world’s capacity to feed itself but now we need a sustainability revolution.
“This includes tackling high-input and resource-intensive farming systems that impose a high cost to the environment. Soil, forests, water, air quality and biodiversity continue to degrade.
“We need to adopt sustainable and productive food systems that offer healthy and nutritious food, while also preserving the environment and biodiversity.”
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