Imported spirits are forecast to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% until 2018, while local drinks are expected to see growth rates slow to 1.3%.
A number of key markets (with the significant exception of China) are experiencing a shift away from traditional spirits. Russia and Germany are among these.
The slowdown in growth of local spirits will lead to a decline in the rate of growth of spirits overall. The CAGR of total spirits consumption is forecast to drop from 6.4% between 2007 and 2012 to 1.5% between 2012 and 2018.
Despite the slowdown, the local spirits category will grow by more than 222 million nine-litre cases by 2018, while a further 67 million cases will be added to the imported spirits category, increasing the market share of imported spirits to 12.3%, up from 11.3% in 2012.
Whisky, vodka and rum are set to be the top three largest growth imported spirits categories over the next five years. Imported whisky volumes are forecast to grow at 3% CAGR over the next six years, and the category is expected to grow to just below 154 million cases by 2018.
Imported vodka is expected to grow faster than the total global vodka market. Overall, vodka is set to add 18.5 million cases to its total volumes.
Imported rum’s growth will continue at the same rate as in the recent past, reaching a CAGR of 3.8%. However, total rum growth will slow from 3.8% in the last five years to 1.1% during the forecast period. Total overall volumes will amount to 156 million cases of which 34 million cases will be imported rum.
Global consumption of spirits is expected to reach 3.37 billion cases by 2018, a significant rise of nearly 290 million cases over 2012 levels.
© FoodBev Media Ltd 2024