It predicts that the bread and rolls market is likely to experience a 1.9% compound annual growth rate during the next five years and reach a market value of $141.1bn by the end of 2013. This represents a volume of production in the region of 66.3 billion kilos, which is likely to rise by 0.7% to 68.8 billion kilos between now and 2013.
Artisanal bread and rolls represented the market’s most lucrative segment, generating revenues of $71.6bn (equivalent to 55.8% of the market’s overall value). Industrial bread and rolls production contributed revenues in the region of $45.4bn in 2008 and represented 35.3% of the market’s aggregate revenues. Overall, the performance of the market is forecast to accelerate, with the Americas and the European markets seeing growth of
1.5% and 1.8% respectively over the next five years.
The global market for biscuits is far better and has experienced stable growth rates of 2.8% for the 2004-2008 period, according to Datamonitor, which forecasts that the performance of the market will continue to accelerate and demonstrate a 2.9% growth rate until 2013, which is expected to drive the market to a value of $36.3bn.
The Asia-Pacific region is likely to enjoy a greater compound annual growth rate of 5.7% to $7.1bn compared with Europe, which is forecast to grow by 2.5% during the same period to reach a value of $14bn by the end of 2013.
Chocolate cookies is the most lucrative sector within the global biscuits market, generating revenues of $5.7bn in 2008, which is equivalent to 18.2% of the market’s overall value. Sales of butter-based cookies generated revenues of $5.2bn in 2008 and equate to 16.5% of the market’s aggregate revenues.
Within the total bakery sector, there’s plenty of activity in specialist seasonal or limited edition products, including flavour variants that bring novelty to the sector and help maintain interest and brand loyalty.
According to David Jago, editorial director of Mintel, there’s some growth in reduced fat and calorie products linked to the idea of permissible indulgence: whole grain varieties continue to show growth, and in less developed markets fortification of bakery products with vitamins and minerals offers opportunities for manufacturers.
Overall, there’s a general trend towards natural (additive-free) formulations, according to Jago, particularly in products for children and most notably in the confectionery arena.
“As with all food markets, a key trend is the move towards ‘naturalness’ – formulations that are additive-free, and promotion of that ‘naturalness’ on the front of pack,” says Jago. “This is most common in products for kids, especially confectionery, but is also seen elsewhere.”
Premium positioning also remains strong in confectionery despite the recession, according to Mintel, and there’s a lot of activity around provenance, specific origin (cocoa) and authenticity in chocolate, with darker and better quality chocolate enjoying growth.
Overall, however, the global confectionery industry has been experiencing a steady decline in its growth rate since 2003, and this trend is likely to continue. The European and Asia-Pacific markets showed compound annual growth rates of 2.8% and 3% respectively between 2003 and 2007; and these figures are likely to be 2.5% and 3.2% respectively between now and the end of 2012.
The total market is likely to increase by 2.7% to reach a value of $135.9bn in 2012. Chocolate sales proved the most lucrative in 2007 when they generated total revenues of $60bn, which is equivalent to 50.5% of the market’s overall value.
In comparison, sugar confectionery generated revenues of $39.1bn in 2007, equating to 32.9% of the market’s aggregate revenues.
“The natural antioxidant content of dark chocolate is key to its recent growth,” says David Jago. “Continued growth is seen in ethical and Fairtrade brands – especially in chocolate confectionery – but it’s also moving into other confectionery as a result of the growth in Fairtrade sugar. According to our observations, low-calorie and functional health claims remain niche in chocolate, and we haven’t seen great growth recently in sugar confectionery.”
Snacks are also tapping into the prevailing ‘natural’ trend. In a bid to improve their nutritional profile, many snacks formulated with whole grains or vegetables, rather than just potato, have appeared. There’s a growth in the use of low saturated fat oils, and baked-not-fried products have made inroads into most markets.
Flavour developments have been key to growth, yet remain mostly localised, according to David Jago. In the UK, Datamonitor has reported that the savoury snack market has shown fluctuating growth between 2004 and 2008, and during the next five years the market is likely to stabilise, with a small acceleration in growth predicted.
Potato chip (crisps) sales remain the most lucrative segment, and generated revenues of $2.1bn in 2008, which is the equivalent to 44% of the market’s overall value. In comparison, sales of processed snacks in the UK generated revenues of $2bn in 2008 – 42.7% of the market’s aggregate revenues.
The market is forecast to enjoy a 1.5% compound annual growth rate during the next five years, which is likely to drive the market to an overall value of $5.1bn by the end of 2013.
**Claire Rowan is editor of Food & Beverage International magazine.**
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