“We are seeing a soda slowdown, but with more choice related to health. We will be awash with water and see a trend to lighter, more affordable drinks. Functionality has a question over it, but premium tea and coffee variants are being more appreciated. We are seeing new growth in craft beers, drink mixes and, in particular, in premium adult beverages with low alcohol content.”
Some of the newest moves are in soy, almond and rice drinks, with the rise in protein drinks providing the new on-the-go liquid breakfast, as we see category blurring between food and drink.
The key issues are taste, convenience, portion size (for anti-obesity reasons and cupboard storage size).
The five areas to watch for the future are:
The company is about to relaunch its global database with a hefty amount of research now completed by Zenith International market analyst Esther Renfrew and her team of 20 in the UK and 70 across the globe, based on figures from manufacturers, trade bodies and government statistics in a constantly evolving process.
Richard went on to give figures covering the 10 years of growth to 2013 and predicting growth to 2018.
Giving volume figures in thousands of millions of litres, he listed the top contenders in the beverage category: “Soft drinks is in the No 1 slot, with hot drinks at No 2, alcohol No 3 and milk at No 4 (this dairy category has achieved considerable growth in Asia).
Between 2008 and 2013, the big growth is expected to be in bottled water, followed by tea, beer, milk, carbonated soft drinks, juice & nectars, then RTD tea.
“Bottled Water was hit by the economic slowdown,” he said, “but acceleration in absolute volume terms is up 170% over the past 15 years. That’s a socking billion litres.”
For carbonated soft drinks, on a global basis, Zenith projects growth of 29%, which is twice that of the global population, again aided in particular by growth in Asia. For fruit juice too, Asia is expected to bring about the main growth with the US in decline.
“The US,” he said “is seeing growth in lighter fruit-based drinks with uplift over the past five years. This is due to the fact that raw material costs are high and lighter drinks are more affordable, as well as meeting demand for healthier drinks.
“Energy drinks have sold over 20 billion cans – that’s $40bn – as here the value is much greater. Sports drinks have seen twice the volume of energy drinks, with 15-year growth of 83% with some of the early startups in this sector such as Gatorade who have seen a downturn over the past few years now seeing a return to growth.
“Ready-to-drink tea is the new rising star, with already sales of over 22 billion litres and is expected to overtake juice by 2018. RTD coffee is predicted steadier growth and other functional health drinks are expected to take more share.”
He concluded by saying that the critical element is product availability and getting it into the hands of the consumer in the right condition. “Customisation and social positioning are key.”
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