The outlook examines the prospects for agricultural markets in key commodity sectors across the world, using established models developed by the OECD and FAO.
The report provides an assessment of likely changes in consumption, demand, production and prices in developed and developing countries as well as prospects for trade.
This year’s report also provides an analysis of price volatility and measures that may reduce its impacts on producers and consumers.
With the world economy recovering from the global downturn, the report presents a positive outlook for markets and prices over the coming decade, tempered to some extent by the likelihood of higher oil and input prices. Prices for almost all key commodities are expected to be significantly higher than over the decade prior to the 2007/8 price spike.
The report assumes that production growth will not be as rapid as in the last decade. However, it will remain on track to meet the growing demand for food resulting from population and economic growth.
Production growth is expected to centre on developing countries, with output in Brazil expected to grow by 40% compared to 2007/9, Russia + Ukraine by 26% and 29% respectively, and China and India by 26% and 21%. In contrast, EU production is expected to grow by a mere 4% over the period.
There are a number of uncertainties in this analysis that do not take into account the effects of climate change, the availability of water (a key issue for India and China) or necessary infrastructure developments (Russia) that may be required to meet these projections.
Read the full National Farmers Union release here.
Source: National Farmers Union
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