Carbon dioxide emissions from the energy and transportation sectors currently account for the largest share of climate pollution. However, the Chalmers study shows that eliminating these emissions wouldn’t guarantee staying below the UN limit.
Emissions from agriculture threaten to keep increasing as global meat and dairy consumption increases. If agricultural emissions are not addressed, nitrous oxide from fields and methane from livestock may double by 2070. This alone would make meeting the climate target essentially impossible.
“We have shown that reducing meat and dairy consumption is key to bringing agricultural climate pollution down to safe levels,” said Fredrik Hedenus, one of the study authors. “Broad dietary change can take a long time. We should already be thinking about how we can make our food more climate friendly.”
“These emissions can be reduced with efficiency gains in meat and dairy production, as well as with the aid of new technology,” said co-author Stefan Wirsenius. “But the potential reductions from these measures are fairly limited and will probably not suffice to keep us within the climate limit, if meat and dairy consumption continue to grow.”
Beef and lamb account for the largest agricultural emissions, relative to the energy they provide. By 2050, estimates indicate that beef and lamb will account for half of all agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, while only contributing 3% of human calorie intake.
Cheese and other dairy products will account for about one quarter of total agricultural climate pollution.
The study, The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets, by Fredrik Hedenus, Stefan Wirsenius and Daniel Johansson, is published in the journal Climatic Change.
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