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James Watson, partner at Argon & Co UK, examines how uncertainty around the EU exports deal is affecting risk exposure, operational resilience and long-term investment across the UK food and drink sector.

When the UK Government unveiled its flagship EU exports deal last year, a Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement designed to ease agri-food trade between the UK and EU, it was framed as a turning point for post-Brexit commerce. By scrapping many routine border checks and cutting administrative burdens, the agreement aimed to reduce friction at the border and ultimately help stabilise food prices for consumers.

This agreement was seen as a vital way to restore a degree of predictability to EU agri-trade. Since Brexit, many UK food and beverage (F&B) manufacturers continue to struggle with additional customs procedures, border delays and additional paperwork that complicate supply chains and add costs. For a sector operating on notoriously tight margins, even small delays can affect the shelf life of perishable goods, increasing waste and eroding profitability. Restoring smoother trade with the EU, therefore, appeared to offer much-needed relief.

But warnings of poor preparation and staff shortages are already threatening to derail that optimism. The Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) is urging food businesses to begin preparing for the deal, but with so much uncertainty in the air, knowing where and how to take action is challenging. While the deal is likely to be in place in mid-2027, the industry is already having to make decisions with major implications far beyond that date.

A sector already under strain

This turbulence around the SPS agreement is also landing at a time when the UK F&B industry is already contending with a range of structural pressures.

Our recent research report, Operations Outlook 2026, highlights just how challenging that landscape has become. It found that rising operating costs – such as higher Employer National Insurance and increases to the National Living Wage – are the top challenge for 54% of C-suite leaders, while 46% of F&B leaders say workforce challenges are their primary issue.

Geopolitical instability is adding another layer of risk, too. Conflict in the Middle East is fuelling uncertainty across the global fertiliser supply chain, which is threatening agricultural production costs, while rising oil prices are impacting transport and logistics costs, farm equipment, and even plastic packaging in the F&B industry.

Against this backdrop, uncertainty over SPS implementation adds another variable into an already fragile operating environment. Many firms are responding by tightening their belts and delaying longer-term resilience investments.

According to our research, 53% of F&B leaders are delaying technology investments until market conditions stabilise. Advanced planning systems, predictive analytics and digital transformation programmes – projects that build resilience over time but do not deliver immediate cost relief – are often the first to be paused. While this approach may protect short-term margins, it risks leaving organisations less equipped to deal with the next disruption when it inevitably arrives.

Why contingency planning is becoming essential

One clear lesson from the SPS uncertainty is the growing importance of contingency planning. Today, F&B manufacturers need to be prepared for multiple scenarios – whether that’s supply chain disruptions, geopolitical risks or entirely compliance requirements emerging at short notice.

For agri-food businesses, even seemingly minor regulatory changes can have major operational consequences. Changes to documentation, certification or inspection procedures can quickly ripple through supply chains, so the ability to adapt and be flexible is vital.

To prepare for these possibilities, some firms are turning to digital tools to stress-test their operations before disruption occurs. Digital twins, for example, allow organisations to build virtual replicas of their supply chains or manufacturing networks, so they can model the impact of extended border delays, additional documentation checks, or sudden cost increases. Leaders gain visibility of where bottlenecks emerge and how service levels are affected, before disruption impacts the value chain.

Technology alone won’t solve the problem

When regulations change quickly, resilience comes down to how fast you can see disruption coming, model its impact, and re-route operations. Much of this is ultimately a data and decision-making challenge.

Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation are increasingly discussed in this context, as they have clear potential in managing documentation and forecasting delays.

But technology alone is not enough. Many F&B manufacturers still struggle to realise value from digital investments due to low adoption, often facing resistance from employees hesitant to trust or use new tools. The industry also faces ongoing challenges to attract digital talent.

The organisations that navigate uncertainty most effectively will align technology, people, and processes together – redesigning how work is done, rather than just updating the tools used to do it. In the F&B industry, leaders can also connect technology transformation to a wider purpose. When employees understand how digital tools contribute to certain goals – like safeguarding food supply, reducing waste, or improving the nutritional quality of what people eat – adoption tends to improve, and resilience becomes embedded across the organisation.