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The economic cost of food waste across the global retail and food supply chain is forecast to reach $540 billion in 2026, up from $526 billion last year, according to new research from Avery Dennison.

The 'Making the Invisible Visible: Unlocking the Hidden Value of Food Waste to Drive Growth and Profitability' report estimates that food waste from post-farm processing through to point of sale costs businesses the equivalent of 33% of total revenue on average.

Based on modelling and research involving 3,500 global retailers and supply chain leaders, the report highlights persistent visibility gaps as a key driver of waste.

61% of respondents said they do not have full visibility into where food waste occurs across their supply chains, while 56% said transit remains a major blind spot, with limited understanding of losses during transportation.

Perishable categories continue to pose the greatest challenge. Meat was identified as the most difficult category for waste management, cited by 50% of respondents, followed by produce (45%) and baked goods (28%). Inventory management and overstocking were flagged by 51% of leaders as major contributors to waste.

Economic modelling projects meat waste alone will cost $94 billion globally in 2026, representing nearly a fifth of the total food waste bill. Fresh produce is forecast to account for a further $88 billion.

The 2025 holiday season intensified pressure on margins, particularly in meat. 67% of retail leaders said meat waste would hit margins harder than before, while 69% said managing waste during peak trading periods had become a greater operational challenge.

Inflation and shifting consumer behaviour are compounding the issue, with 74% of retailers reporting that inflation has made demand forecasting for fresh meat more difficult, and 73% noting rising demand for smaller portions or alternatives.

If current trends continue, the cumulative cost of food waste between 2025 and 2030 is expected to reach $3.4 trillion, as the industry approaches the UN’s 2030 target to halve global food waste. More than a quarter (27%) of respondents said they do not expect to meet that deadline.

Despite the scale of the challenge, 73% of business leaders said they view tackling food waste as a growth opportunity, rather than solely a sustainability issue.