Global food price stability is under threat as disruptions to critical shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz risk delaying agricultural inputs, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

In a recent podcast, FAO chief economist Máximo Torero and David Laborde, director of the agency’s agrifood economics division, stated that unless vessels carrying fertilisers and energy inputs resume transit soon, the global food system could face a ripple effect reminiscent of the Covid-19-era supply issues.

Torero highlighted the time-sensitive nature of crop cycles, particularly in lower-income countries, warning that 'the clock is ticking'. Delays in fertiliser access could also force farmers to reduce use, lowering yields and pushing commodity prices higher into 2026 and beyond.

While the FAO Food Price Index for March remained stable, pressure is building. Farmers are entering critical planting decision windows, and uncertainty around fertiliser availability and energy costs is influencing crop choices.

Laborde also cautioned that the sector is already at an 'input crisis', warning that failure to act could escalate the situation into a broader catastrophe. Rising oil prices are further complicating the outlook, incentivising shifts towards biofuel production at the expense of food crops.

The FAO is urging governments to reconsider biofuel mandates and avoid export restrictions on fertilisers and energy – measures that have historically exacerbated global price spikes during crises.

Between 20% and 45% of global trade in key agricultural inputs relies on routes through the Strait of Hormuz, making the current disruption particularly acute. Fertiliser and energy markets are highly inelastic, meaning even small supply constraints can trigger disproportionate price rises.

To mitigate the risks, the FAO is calling for coordinated international action, including financial support mechanisms for countries struggling to secure fertiliser supplies.

The organisation has also developed a crop calendar-based prioritisation system to identify countries with the most urgent fertiliser needs, aiming to ensure the timely allocation of limited resources.

Unlike climate-related disruptions such as El Niño, Torero emphasised that the current crisis is geopolitical and therefore resolvable. However, he warned that inaction could create a 'perfect storm', particularly if compounded by adverse weather conditions.

Torero continued: "The risks are very clear. If we don't accelerate action, they will only worsen."

For the food and beverage industry, sustained input shortages and rising commodity prices could translate into higher production costs, tighter margins and increased retail prices – igniting inflationary pressures across global markets.