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13 January 2025

Research: Study reveals how GLP-1 medication influences grocery purchases and eating habits

Research: Study reveals how GLP-1 medication influences grocery purchases and eating habits

A new study has found that consumers using GLP-1 drugs for weight loss reduce their grocery spending by nearly 6% on average, with largest reductions in spending on 'ultra-processed' categories such as sweets and snack foods.


The research was carried out by Cornell University's Cornell SC Johnson College of Business, and consumer data company Numerator. The findings shed light on the economic and behavioural shifts prompted by the appetite-suppressing effects of medications like Ozempic and Wegovy, originally designed for diabetes management but now widely used for weight management.


The study, called 'The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption Is Changing Consumer Food Purchases', analysed data from 2,623 households with at least one GLP-1 user. They were selected from a sample of 22,712 households that participated in Numerator's 150,000-household US consumer panel survey on GLP-1 drugs between October 2023 and July 2024.


It shows a decline in snack consumption linked to increasing use of GLP-1 medications, with the study’s final sample representing an 11.6% incidence. This closely aligns with the national estimate of approximately 12% of US adults having used GLP-1 medications.


Tracking the impact

Researchers tracked grocery expenditures for these households six months before GLP-1 adoption and six months afterward, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of changes in food purchasing behaviour. The results showed that households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced their grocery spending by approximately 6% within six months of adoption, with higher-income households experiencing a more significant decline. This reduction in grocery spending translates to an annual decrease of $416.


The reductions were most pronounced in calorie-dense, processed food categories. Purchases of savoury snacks dropped by 11%, while spending on sweet bakery items also saw one of the largest decreases. Meanwhile, nutrient-rich options such as yogurt and fresh produce were less affected, with some users increasing their purchases of these items.


Cornell and Numerator’s report stated: "Overall, the results show that GLP-1 users reduce spending on high-calorie, high-sugar or high-fat items. For example, spending on products such as chips, sweet bakery, sides and cookies show some of the largest reductions, averaging around -11.1% to -6.7%."


Dining in decline

The study also documented shifts in food-away-from-home spending. Limited service establishments like fast-food chains and coffee shops reported declines, especially during breakfast and dinner. According to the report, these findings highlight how GLP-1’s appetite-suppressing effects ripple across meal occasions, reducing both grocery and restaurant expenditures.


Fast-food giants like McDonald’s are already feeling the heat. McDonald’s reported a 0.7% drop in US same-store sales in Q2 2024 – which is said to be the first decline in four years – with analysts attributing part of this to GLP-1-driven behavioural changes.


Brands are also feeling the effects in retail. Declines in demand for calorie-dense, indulgent products have prompted major players like Kraft Heinz and Campbell’s to rethink their strategies, particularly in processed and snack food categories. Some are pivoting towards healthier offerings, as seen in the 2023 Mars' acquisition of Kevin's Natural Foods, a producer of nutrient-dense, convenient meals.


The study highlighted: "The appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs are likely to prompt targeted adjustments in product development and packaging. Companies may need to reevaluate product

formulations, portion sizes and packaging strategies to align with changing consumption patterns."


"Consumers on GLP-1 medications are expected to gravitate toward smaller portions and products emphasising health and convenience, such as single-serving or portion-controlled options for nutrient-dense items like fresh produce, yogurt and nutrition bars".

IFE 2024
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