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Donald Trump has been making headlines recently, notably for his controversial comments regarding Coca-Cola, which sparked discussions about corporate influence and American products.

Now, he is back in the spotlight with a new threat of 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico, set to take effect on August 1. The food and drink industry finds itself once again caught in the crosshairs of geopolitics following the US president's announcement.

The announcement, made on Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, has stunned European officials and sent shockwaves through supply chains on both sides of the Atlantic. The Financial Times reported that shares across the EU have already seen an impact, with many companies bracing for the economic fallout.

The new proposals have meant that negotiations over maintaining a 10% baseline tariff have been discarded. Trump’s letter to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen demands “complete, open market access” without reciprocal tariffs. In response, von der Leyen stated that such measures would “disrupt essential transatlantic supply chains, to the detriment of businesses, consumers, and patients.”

Trump shared the letter to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen on his truth Social platform.

Following Trump’s proposal, the EU has unveiled a new list of retaliatory tariffs, totalling €72 billion (approximately $84 billion), targeting US goods, including bourbon and a wide range of industrial and agricultural products.

The 206-page list, prepared by the European Commission and reported by Bloomberg, was narrowed down from an initial €95 billion after consultations with member states and companies. The list is said to cover more than €65 billion of industrial goods, including nearly €11 billion in aircraft, €9.4 billion in machinery, and €8 billion in autos, as well as €6 billion in agrifood products, primarily fruits, vegetables and alcoholic drinks.

According to reporting from the Washington Post, last year, US-EU trade in goods totalled nearly $1 trillion, while the US and Mexico are linked in a North American trading zone under a trade agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term, with almost $840 billion in goods passing between them.

After Trump’s announcement on Saturday, Bernd Lange, the head of the European Parliament’s trade committee, told Reuters: “It is brazen and disrespectful to increase the tariffs on European goods announced on April 2 from 20% to 30%. This is a slap in the face for the negotiations and no way to deal with a key trading partner.”

Lange noted that the EU had been negotiating intensively with Washington for more than three weeks and had already made concessions, making Trump’s announcement even more surprising.

Products in the firing line

If imposed, the 30% tariffs would disproportionately impact premium EU food and drink exports, which are central to the region's global gastronomic reputation, alongside cupboard staples. These include:

Cheese and dairy products: Speciality cheeses represent a significant slice of EU-US trade, particularly cheeses like Parmigiano-Reggiano, Brie, Manchego and Gouda. The US has limited domestic substitutes for many of these products, but steep price increases could reduce demand and marginalise them to niche markets.

Alcoholic drinks: EU nations dominate US wine imports, especially French Champagne and Bordeaux, Italian Prosecco and Spanish Rioja. A 30% tariff would sharply erode competitiveness, driving restaurants and retailers toward US, Chilean, or Australian alternatives. Similarly, spirits and liqueurs, like cognac and amaro, are among the most exported products from the EU to the US.

Anne Cogny, export sales director at wine producer Les Vignerons de Tutiac, expressed disappointment in the new tariff proposals: “The constant back-and-forth on tariffs has created a deeply unstable commercial environment. Announcements are made, then walked back, only to be reintroduced again. This unpredictability is damaging.”

Olive oil and speciality oils: Extra virgin olive oil from regions like Spain, Italy, and Greece is already under pressure to compete with cheaper alternatives made within the US, such as in California. More premium products, appealing due to their authentic heritage positioning, like Swiss chocolates, pastas and charcuterie, are also likely to be impacted should the tariffs increase prices.

This doesn’t include the list of items covered by the retaliatory tariffs, which includes many more food and beverage items, including bourbon and vegetables.

Speaking about the upcoming tariff discussions, von der Leyen and Italian PM Giorgia Meloni both highlighted the importance of continued talks to avoid what Meloni called an “unnecessary trade war.” EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič called the proposed tariff levels “almost impossible” to absorb, suggesting that normal trade could grind to a halt.

For American importers, the consequences are equally severe. Rising costs, reduced variety, and broken contracts could become common across retail, restaurants, and speciality grocers. Consumers could face sticker shock on everything from Brie to Barolo, just as inflationary pressures were beginning to ease.

Global ramifications

Simon Geale, executive vice president at supply chain consultancy Proxima, warns that the situation demands urgent attention, especially as the tariff announcement comes when inflation, global instability, and regulatory challenges are already causing issues within supply chains.

He stated: "A 30% tariff on EU imports is a significant escalation in trade tensions and again ratchets up the risk for businesses. From automotive and aerospace to pharmaceuticals and consumer goods, US businesses rely heavily on European materials, components and finished goods. The immediate impact will be rising costs, supply disruption and the need for urgent risk mitigation.”

EU Trade Commissioner Šefčovič also expressed concern, telling the Financial Times: “If you are talking about 30% or 30% plus, there will be a huge impact on trade. It will be almost impossible to continue trading as we are used to in a transatlantic relationship. Supply chains would be heavily affected on both sides.”

It is not just businesses in the EU that are feeling the strain. The Trump administration’s weekend announcements also included a 30% tariff proposal for Mexico, with a 17% tariff on Mexico’s fresh tomato exports beginning on July 14, a 35% tariff for Canada, and a 50% tariff for Brazil.

In his letter to the Mexican premier, Trump claimed the tariffs were in part because Mexico “had not done enough” to help America secure its borders. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum stated: “We are clear on what we can work with the USA and we are clear on what we cannot. And there is something that is never negotiated, ever, and that is the sovereignty of our country."

Earlier in the month, prior to the letters released to Mexico and the EU, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on all goods out of Brazil, effective August 1, and called for an investigation into what he described as “Brazil’s continued attacks on the Digital Trade activities of American Companies, as well as other unfair Trading Practices.” In response, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced that his country would introduce a retaliatory 50% tariff on imported US goods.

Speaking about continuing the trade negotiations, the EU’s von der Leyen said: “We remain ready to continue working towards an agreement by August 1. At the same time, we will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.”

Businesses, however, remain concerned. Geale emphasised: "While there’s still hope of a negotiated outcome, the unpredictability of current US trade policy means businesses must plan for disruption. Resilience, flexibility, and visibility across supply chains are now more critical than ever.”

While diplomacy may yet prevail, food and drink businesses on both sides of the Atlantic should prepare for impact. The 30% tariff – if enacted – would reshape transatlantic trade in gourmet and specialty products and potentially trigger a broader escalation affecting all sectors.